Twenty-Eight Plans, Five Fills: A +1.30R Week Spent Mostly Waiting
The desk filled five shorts from 28 plans and closed the week at +1.30R, most of it on Friday afternoon. October ended at -9.71R.
Before the trade, meet the system.
SkyAnalyst is not one AI trader. It is four specialist agents, each with its own data pipeline, each maintaining state between evaluations, and each required to agree before a position is sized. They don’t chat in prose. They write structured messages to a shared state object that each reads on every evaluation cycle.
The desk barely traded this week. It filled nothing on Monday, nothing on Wednesday while the Fed held, and nothing on Thursday. The five fills came on Tuesday and Friday, all of them shorts, and the window closed at +1.30R, about 2,600 dollars on a simulated 100,000 dollar account at 2% risk. Tuesday's two trades nearly cancelled out: a Dow short stopped and a euro short reached all three of its targets, which left the week at +0.01R. Friday did the rest. A sterling short stopped at 16:16 UTC, but a Dow short and an S&P short, filled forty minutes apart, both ran to their third targets. Friday was also the last trading day of October, and that moves the number at the top of this page. The year to date ledger now includes October, which finished at -9.71R across 37 trades, so it reads +28.63R YTD from Jan 12 inception, down from the +38.35R we printed through the September close. The same simulated account sits at $157,278.64. To watch that process on your own instruments, see SkyAnalyst run your markets.
Monday and Tuesday: a day of declines, then a split
Monday wrote seven plans and filled none of them. The Dow long was declined eleven times between 14:48 and 15:06 UTC because no 5-minute candle reclaimed and held above 52,565, and the plan expired. A euro short was approved at 15:27 on a break below 1.1180 and never filled.
Tuesday opened with a Dow short at 52,368.6 at 14:07 UTC, seven minutes after consumer confidence printed 91.7 against an 81.2 forecast. Its first evaluation declined it at 14:07:30, saying the rejection was not clearly confirmed. The second approved it seven seconds later, and the stop at 52,480 went at 15:19.
The euro short took longer. Five evaluations declined it before the sixth approved at 14:21, at confidence 68, pointing to a closed 14:15 bar that had wicked to 1.11539 and closed back at 1.11493. It filled at 1.11466 and reached its third target at 1.1128 by 20:31 UTC. The ledger banks it at its first target for +1.01R.
Wednesday and Thursday: the Fed, and no level to take
Wednesday produced no plan. The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% on a 10-2 vote, futures kept a December hike priced, and price never gave the books a clean level to work from.
Thursday's GDP beat brought two plans and no fill. A Canadian dollar short was approved at 15:05 UTC, never filled, and was cancelled at 15:23. A euro short was declined twice, the second time after price had already tagged its stop. The Nasdaq broke hard in the last hour of the session with no plan of ours near it.
Friday: three fills in a little over an hour
Nine plans, three fills, and all three shorts. The sterling short went first, at 1.33886 at 14:34 UTC, approved on a rejection that was already stale. It stopped at 1.34062 at 16:16.
The Dow short at 52,093 was the opposite kind of entry. Three evaluations declined it, the last at 15:04 because the bar in front of it was still provisional. That bar closed as a rejection, and the next evaluation approved at 15:05 at confidence 72. It was at its third target by 18:20 UTC and is banked at +1.24R, the win of the week.
The S&P short at 7,596 at 15:45 approved on its only evaluation, at confidence 74, and said in writing that it did not yet have a confirmed 5-minute close below 7595.7. Price kept going, and it reached its third target by 18:30 UTC, banked at +1.05R.
Every trade the system took.
| Date | Time | Instrument | Dir | Model | Setup | Grade | R | $ Sim | Result | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | 14:07 UTC | US30 | Short | US30 SHORT | C+ | -1.0R(SL) | -$2,000(SL) | Stop hit | - | |
| Oct 27 | 14:21 UTC | EURUSD | Short | EURUSD Pullback into Resistance Short | C+ | +1.01R(TP1) | +$2,024(TP1) | TP3 hit | Read case → | |
| Oct 30 | 14:34 UTC | GBPUSD | Short | GBPUSD tactical short on bounce | B | -1.0R(SL) | -$2,000(SL) | Stop hit | - | |
| Oct 30 | 15:05 UTC | US30 | Short | US30 SHORT, bounce-fade into 50-61.8% retrace | B | +1.24R(TP1) | +$2,487(TP1) | TP3 hit · ★ Trade of the week | Read case → | |
| Oct 30 | 15:45 UTC | US500 | Short | US500 SHORT, Breakdown Continuation Below Session Low | B | +1.05R(TP1) | +$2,091(TP1) | TP3 hit | Read case → |
Dollar figures are simulated on a $100,000 account at 2% risk per trade. Actual subscriber P&L varies with account size. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Pattern of the week
Every fill this week was a short, and four of the five sold a bounce into resistance under VWAP. Direction was not what separated them. All five read the intraday structure as bearish, and two of those five still lost a full 1R.
What separated them is less tidy than we would like. In last week's recap we said the habit we wanted back was the plan's own condition, closed, before the order goes in. Friday's Dow short did exactly that, refusing a provisional bar and approving once it closed. Tuesday's euro short came close. It sat through five declines and approved on a completed candle, but the evaluation 79 seconds earlier had read that same closed bar as no rejection at all, and the only change was price slipping lower in the forming bar. Both reached their third targets.
The two losses had less behind them. Tuesday's Dow short approved seven seconds after a decline, with no candle closed in between. Friday's sterling short approved on a rejection that had closed about 14 minutes earlier. Both stopped.
Two trades complicate that. Friday's S&P short entered on a candle still forming, said so, and paid, and the euro short shows that two reads of the same bar can disagree. Five trades is far too few to call this a rule, and one result either way would change the picture. What we can say is that the cleanest wait of the week was also its best trade, and the two approvals with the least behind them both stopped.
Decision highlights
Monday's Dow long is the decision of the week for what did not happen. Eleven evaluations in eighteen minutes refused the same missing reclaim, and the plan expired with no order and no R spent.
Friday's Dow short is the decision we would take again every time. The last no at 15:04 UTC and the yes at 15:05 were under a minute and a half apart, and what changed between them was a closed candle.
The one that bothers us is Tuesday's Dow short. The first evaluation at 14:07:30 UTC declined it for lack of a confirmed rejection, and the second approved it at 14:07:37 while noting it was not a perfect momentum entry. Seven seconds cannot produce new evidence on a 5-minute chart.
Six instruments, six stories.
A Tuesday short that waited through five declines for a rejection at resistance and went on to reach its third target.
All EURUSD this week →A single Friday short approved on a rejection about 14 minutes old. It stopped after moving roughly 10 pips our way.
All GBPUSD this week →Two shorts on opposite ends of the week's lesson. Tuesday's approved seven seconds after a decline and stopped, and Friday's waited for a closed rejection and reached its third target.
All US30 this week →Long plans on Monday and Tuesday that never reached an entry, and no plan on Thursday when the index broke down late in the session.
All NAS100 this week →One Friday short sold on a break of the session low before any candle closed below it. It still ran to its third target.
All US500 this week →No fills. A Thursday short was approved at 15:05 UTC and cancelled unfilled at 15:23.
All USDCAD this week →Win of the week: US30 Short · +1.24R
Loss worth learning from
Friday's sterling short
The loss the system singled out is Friday's sterling short, the better graded of the two at B. Between 14:15 and 14:27 UTC an earlier sterling plan was declined seven times, the last with a note that entering would be "a chase, not the planned retrace entry". A new plan written at 14:32 was approved on its first evaluation at 14:34, at confidence 72, with the reasoning that "the 5m trigger has effectively been seen already" on the 14:10 and 14:15 bars.
Price had come back to the lower edge of the zone, so this was not the chase the earlier plan had refused. But the rejection it leaned on had closed about 14 minutes before the approval, and that morning's read had the dollar softer across the majors with sterling showing the strongest momentum in the group. Price reached 1.33789, about 10 pips our way against roughly 15 to the first target, and stopped at 1.34062 at 16:16.
Tuesday's Dow short
The other loss is the one we learn more from. A plan to sell a bounce at resistance is sound, and the approval was right that the structure was bearish. But the entry came seven minutes after a consumer confidence print well above forecast, and the 5-minute MACD was improving. Price reached 52,275.2, about 93 points our way against roughly 140 to the first target, then squeezed through 52,480 at 15:19 UTC.
On a $100k account at 2.0% risk per trade.
Each trade risks +$2,000 (1R). The system's actual scale-out behavior may differ, see disclaimer.
| Scenario | R-multiple | Profit on $100k |
|---|---|---|
| Window netActual | +1.3R | +$2,600 |
All six agents combined.
From the desk
The week made +1.30R: three winners at their first targets and two losses at exactly 1R. It is a small positive week at the end of a bad month, and we would rather have five trades like this than twelve like last week's.
The year to date ledger reads +28.63R across 294 trades at a 55.1% win rate from Jan 12 inception, with October now inside it. Run through a static 100,000 dollar account at 2% risk, that is $157,278.64. Run through the same account compounding, where each trade is sized off the balance it actually had, it is $166,650.60. The gap, about 9,400 dollars, is the same R through fixed fractional sizing and adds no edge. It was about 27,000 dollars at the end of September. Sizing off a larger balance earns more on the way up and gives back more on the way down, and October showed the second half of that.
October finished at -9.71R, 14 wins and 23 losses across 37 trades. One piece of housekeeping on that figure. A EURUSD short entered at 14:43 UTC on Oct 23 was still open when last week's recap went out, so it is not in that article's -6.73R. It gapped through its 1.1210 stop on the Sunday reopen and exited at 1.12263, about 16 pips past the stop. The ledger books every stopped trade at -1R by convention, so the trade sits inside October's total at -1R and the slippage appears in no R figure here.
Next week brings the RBA and the BoE, and each book reads its session from scratch. The habit we want to keep is the one Friday's Dow short showed: wait for the plan's own condition to close, then act on it.
What we're tuning
We keep looking at the same check we described last week: hold an approval until the condition the plan named has printed on a completed candle. This week adds two narrower cases for it. A decline and an approval seconds apart on the same chart should not stand unless something has actually closed in between, and a rejection that closed 14 minutes ago should not count as a live trigger.
We are also looking at scheduled data. Tuesday's Dow short read a 5-minute bounce minutes after a major print had given the market a reason to buy, and an entry that close to a release should have to account for it in the reasoning before it goes through.
At a Glance
Week at a glance
Why did only five trades fill from 28 plans?
A plan is a conditional idea, and an order only goes in when an evaluation approves it and price reaches the entry. This week the evaluations declined far more than they approved, and two approvals never filled. Most plans expired because price never reached them or their conditions never printed, which is the system working as designed.
Why did the year to date figure fall from +38.35R to +28.63R?
The ledger adds a month once its window closes, and this recap's window runs past the end of October. Through September it read +38.35R across 257 trades. October finished at -9.71R across 37 trades, so the figure now reads +28.63R across 294 trades, with the ledger carrying more decimals than we print. We publish it this way so a number printed in one month still means the same thing later in the year.
What happened to the EURUSD short missing from last week's recap?
It was entered at 14:43 UTC on Oct 23 and was still open when that recap published, so that article's -6.73R did not include it. Sunday's reopen gapped it about 16 pips past its stop, and the ledger books it at -1R by convention, as it does every stopped trade. It sits in October, and the published recap keeps its original figure, so this note is where the two reconcile.
How do the R figures here relate to the case studies?
This recap uses a TP1 baseline: a winner is credited with the distance to its first target and a stopped trade with minus 1R. Single-trade case studies report full potential, the distance to the furthest target reached. All three of this week's winners reached their third targets, so their case studies show larger figures than this table. We never mix the two inside one article.
What does a week with so few trades tell us?
Very little on its own. Five trades cannot prove a process change, and a 60% win rate on a sample that small could easily flip the following week. With so few entries, though, we can read each approval closely and see which ones waited for a closed candle and which did not.
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We project the recap totals using a TP1 exit on every winning trade. This is the simplest baseline for comparing across periods. Traders running their own scale-out, trail, or TP2/TP3 hold strategies will see different totals. Dollar figures are simulated on a $100,000 account at 2% risk per trade. Actual subscriber P&L varies with account size and execution. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
The trades in this article are taken by the SkyAnalyst agents in live demo accounts at a regulated broker, in a live market environment, so the demo account reflects every transaction SkyAnalyst makes. The app logs each trade and confirms it against the live price feed of the broker; the capital is simulated and no real capital is at risk. The demo account is linked to MyFxbook, which publishes its results publicly. We publish these results to study how the agents trade and reason, for education and trade analysis, not as a recommendation. Trade at your own risk.
From the SkyAnalyst Journal
October 2026, -9.71R: Our Worst Month, and What the Approvals Don't Explain
Thirty-seven trades, 14 winners, -9.71R. Both directions lost. Losing approvals flagged doubts, but so did winners, so that alone explains little. YTD: +28.63R.
A Dow Short and a Sterling Short: Two 1R Stops With Nothing New Behind Them
Two 1R losses inside a +1.30R week: a Dow short approved seven seconds after a decline, and a sterling short approved on a rejection 14 minutes old.
US500 Short: A Bounce Stopped 0.6 Points Short, So the Plan Sold the Break
Three plans wanted a bounce the S&P 500 never gave. The fourth sold the session low instead, and its read entered before the close it asked for. TP1 paid +1.05R (TP1); the market reached +2.77R (TP3).