Four filled trades, one winner, three losses, -1.33R net at TP1 baseline. The Apr 23 EURUSD short ran clean to TP3. The other three stopped. Republish after a m
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Four filled trades, one winner, three losses, -1.33R net on the TP1 baseline. That is the corrected scorecard for Apr 20-26, 2026. This article is a republish. The first version of this recap counted seven trades and -4.33R because the prior methodology silently treated three unfilled conditional orders as -1R losses. The fix dropped those phantom rows. The honest window reads 25 percent win rate and -1.33R, and that is what we publish here. The single winner was a EURUSD short Thursday afternoon that ran the full TP1, TP2, TP3 ladder. Under our recap baseline we book it as +1.67R from entry to TP1. The broker fill at TP3 ran +4.17R. The full anatomy lives in the case study at the Apr 23 EURUSD short writeup. The three losses are walked in detail in the companion drawdown report. Last week's recap sits at the Apr 13 recap; March's monthly recap covers the longer window.
Mon Apr 20 through Wed Apr 22 were zero-fill sessions. Conditional orders were posted. Price did not interact with any trigger level inside the active window. The first half of the week was a clean abstain.
Thu Apr 23 opened the entry column. EURUSD Short at 14:58 UTC on a resistance-rejection setup graded B cleared confluence. Macro gated bearish-EUR on a firming DXY. Cross-Asset confirmed with US yields bid into the cash open. The trade ran entry through TP1 to TP2 and out at TP3. TP1-baseline credit: +1.67R. Equity printed $103,333 at the peak.
Fifty-three minutes later, NAS100 Long at 15:51 UTC on a conditional pullback to a VWAP/structure zone graded C+ cleared. The index rolled through the zone instead of holding it. Stop at -1R inside the hour. Thursday closed +0.67R cumulative.
Fri Apr 24 brought two filled entries, both losses. US500 Short at 14:05 UTC on a VWAP rejection setup graded C+ stopped at -1R as the index reclaimed VWAP through the cash open. Forty-four minutes later, XAUUSD Long at 14:49 UTC on a pullback to the Trend Agent invalidation zone graded C+ stopped at -1R. Equity closed Friday at $97,333. Window net: -1.33R.
| Date | Time | Instrument | Dir | Model | Setup | Grade | R | $ Sim | Result | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23 | 14:58 UTC | EURUSD | Short | Claude Opus 4.6 | Conditional Short EURUSD at Resistance Rejection | B | +1.67R | +$3,333 | TP3 hit · ★ Trade of the week | Read case → |
| Apr 23 | 15:51 UTC | NAS100 | Long | Claude Opus 4.6 | Conditional Pullback Long at VWAP/Structure Zone | C+ | -1.0R | -$2,000 | Stop hit | - |
| Apr 24 | 14:05 UTC | US500 | Short | Claude Opus 4.6 | VWAP Rejection / Opening Range Breakdown Short | C+ | -1.0R | -$2,000 | Stop hit | - |
| Apr 24 | 14:49 UTC | XAUUSD | Long | Claude Opus 4.6 | Bullish Pullback to Trend Agent Invalidation / Support Zone | C+ | -1.0R | -$2,000 | Stop hit | - |
Dollar figures are simulated on a $100,000 account at 2% risk per trade. Actual subscriber P&L varies with account size. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The week's pattern was one clean directional read on EURUSD, then three lower-confluence setups that did not survive the cash open. The single B-grade entry won and ran the full ladder. The three C+ entries each stopped at -1R inside the first hour after fill.
Inside the four filled trades, the EURUSD short was the only setup that scored above the C+ floor band. The three losses clustered at the floor of the actionable range, where a roughly 40 percent failure rate is the design assumption.
The Apr 23 EURUSD short combined a B grade with a regime read the cash open confirmed. Under TP1 baseline it credits +1.67R. The broker fill at TP3 ran +4.17R. Subscribers running scale-out at TP1, TP2, and TP3 booked closer to the broker figure. The recap baseline holds the projection at TP1 across every winner so the period comparisons stay consistent.
The Thursday EURUSD short at 14:58 UTC at a B grade is the single highest-quality entry of the window. Macro gated bearish-EUR on a firming DXY, Cross-Asset confirmed with bid US yields, the structure read held, the trade ran the full ladder. TP1-baseline credit +1.67R; the case study documents the full +4.17R run.
The Friday XAUUSD long at 14:49 UTC, forty-four minutes after the US500 short stopped, defined the loss side. The Risk Agent did not widen the floor or pause the engine. Confluence cleared at the same threshold the morning's loser had used. The setup stopped at -1R.
The methodology decision sits behind every number in this republish. The prior build counted three unfilled conditional orders as -1R losses. The fix drops rows that never produced a fill price. Four filled trades, 25 percent win rate, -1.33R is the honest window.
SkyAnalyst runs multiple foundation models in parallel across its four-agent system. When two models trade the same instrument in the same week, the results are directly comparable. This is that comparison.
Same signals, same risk framework, different foundation model.
EURUSD took one trade for 100 percent win rate and +1.67R net. The Apr 23 short at 14:58 UTC ran from resistance rejection to TP3. The TP1-baseline credit is +1.67R; the broker fill ran +4.17R.
All EURUSD this week →XAUUSD took one trade for 0 percent win rate and -1R net. The Apr 24 long stopped at -1R when the support zone failed inside the first hour after fill.
All XAUUSD this week →US30 was inactive. No setup cleared the confluence floor in this window.
All US30 this week →NAS100 took one trade for 0 percent win rate and -1R net. The Apr 23 conditional pullback long stopped as the VWAP/structure zone gave way through the cash open.
All NAS100 this week →USDJPY was inactive. No trigger level interacted with price during the active window.
All USDJPY this week →US500 took one trade for 0 percent win rate and -1R net. The Apr 24 VWAP rejection short stopped as the index reclaimed VWAP through the New York open.
All US500 this week →Win of the week: EURUSD Short · +1.67R
All three losses cleared the published confluence threshold at trigger. The NAS100 long had a clean VWAP/structure zone read with macro risk-tolerant. The US500 short was a textbook VWAP rejection with bond bid into the open. The XAUUSD long had Trend Agent invalidation alignment with cross-asset confirmation. None of the three were structurally indefensible at trigger time.
All three were C+ grade entries at the floor of the actionable confluence range. A C+ trade has, by design, a roughly 40 percent failure rate. Three C+ entries clustered inside two sessions, the failure rate compounded, and all three resolved at the stop. The entries were not the error. The cash open repriced the local tape inside the trade lifecycle, and the stop was the only exit on each.
Each trade risks +$2,000 (1R). The system's actual scale-out behavior may differ, see disclaimer.
| Scenario | R-multiple | Profit on $100k |
|---|---|---|
| Window netActual | -1.33R | −$2,660 |
The honest reading: four fills, one TP3 winner, three SL hits, -1.33R net. A 25 percent week at our published expectancy is the kind the system was designed to absorb on the way to the rolling-window math. The single B-grade entry ran clean. The three C+ entries clustered at the floor of the range and the failure rate landed where the design says it should.
The architecture point is the methodology fix. The prior version reported seven trades and -4.33R because the build counted three unfilled conditional orders as -1R losses. They were never filled. The fix drops those rows from the ledger and republishes the honest count. We would rather correct a published number than leave a wrong one in the record.
The TP1-baseline reading of -1.33R undercounts the EURUSD short's broker fill at TP3. Subscribers running scale-out at TP1, TP2, and TP3 booked closer to +4.17R on that single trade. The recap holds the baseline across windows so comparisons stay clean. From the SkyAnalyst Team.
The three losses do not surface a single tunable artifact. All three were C+ entries at the floor of the actionable range. The design accepts a roughly 40 percent failure rate at that grade in exchange for the volume of opportunities the floor produces. Removing the C+ band would lower expected value over the rolling 100-trade window and would have skipped real winners in prior weeks. The four-trade window is too small to recalibrate the floor in either direction.
The methodology fix is the operational item out of this republish. The benchmark pipeline now drops conditional orders that never produced a fill from the trade ledger. The companion drawdown report applies the same fix on the loss side.
The first version counted seven trades and -4.33R. The benchmark pipeline previously treated three unfilled conditional orders as -1R losses. A methodology fix dropped phantom rows from the ledger. The corrected window reads four filled trades, one winner, three losses, 25 percent win rate, -1.33R net.
Recap R-multiples use a TP1-baseline projection on every winner so period comparisons stay consistent. The Apr 23 short ran the full ladder, so the baseline reads +1.67R while the case study documents the full +4.17R TP3 run. Scale-out subscribers booked closer to the case-study figure.
Single-model windows occur when one family's confluence math clears threshold and the other does not on the same setups. Four trades is too small a sample to read model dispersion. The longer-window head-to-head lives in March's monthly recap.
Nothing instrument-specific. All three were C+ entries at the floor of the actionable range, where the design accepts a roughly 40 percent failure rate. The operational item out of this republish is the methodology fix that drops unfilled conditional orders from the ledger.
Subscribers receive the same pre-trade AI analysis three minutes before entry.
We project the recap totals using a TP1 exit on every winning trade. This is the simplest baseline for comparing across periods. Traders running their own scale-out, trail, or TP2/TP3 hold strategies will see different totals. Dollar figures are simulated on a $100,000 account at 2% risk per trade. Actual subscriber P&L varies with account size and execution. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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