How We Measure Trading Performance
The honest way to measure a trading system is not by its win rate, its best week, or a screenshot of one big trade. It is by expectancy — the average result per trade, in R-multiples, across a large, dated sample — reported the same way in good weeks and bad. This page explains exactly how SkyAnalyst scores itself, why we report the numbers we do, and where you can verify them.
Win rate is the wrong headline number
A high win rate sells well and proves little. A system can win 70% of its trades and lose money if its rare losers are large, and it can win 45% and compound beautifully if its winners are multiples of its losers. Quoting win rate alone — with no average win, no average loss, no sample size — is the oldest trick in trading marketing. We treat win rate as one input, never the headline.
Expectancy and R-multiples: the real edge metric
Expectancy is (win rate × average winning R) − (loss rate × average losing R), and it tells you the average R you can expect per trade. SkyAnalyst’s year-to-date record runs around a 58% win rate with positive expectancy, which is the actual engine behind the cumulative R the desk reports. Measuring in R rather than dollars keeps every trade comparable across instruments and account sizes — the full reasoning is in understanding R-multiples.
TP1-baseline vs full-TP — and why we report TP1
Every trade has three take-profit targets (TP1, TP2, TP3). A trade can be scored generously (credit the furthest target it touched) or conservatively (credit only the first). SkyAnalyst’s aggregate reporting uses the TP1-baseline: winners are credited at the TP1 R distance and losers at −1R. It is the most conservative and the most comparable choice — it does not let a single runner inflate a period, and it keeps weekly, monthly, and year-to-date numbers on the same footing. Single-trade case studies may show the full-TP result for teaching, but the headline track record is always TP1-baseline.
Static vs compounded equity
We simulate a $100,000 account at 2% risk per trade and report two equity paths. Static applies a fixed 2% of the original balance to every trade; compounded sizes each trade off the running balance. The two diverge over time — compounding pulls ahead in an uptrend and falls faster in a drawdown — and showing both is more honest than cherry-picking whichever looks better that week. It also makes the effect of disciplined sizing visible rather than asserted.
The public, dated track record
The numbers above are only worth anything if you can check them. SkyAnalyst publishes a weekly recap of every trade and a weekly losses report on every losing week — each dated, each tied to the year-to-date ledger. Drawdowns are disclosed with their statistical context (see drawdowns and losing streaks) rather than hidden. A dated, public, win-and-loss record is the one thing a marketing claim can never replicate.
What we deliberately do not claim
We do not publish a “guaranteed win rate,” a “can’t-lose” system, or a computed Kelly fraction the desk does not actually trade. We do not show only winners. We do not annualize a good month into a fantasy yearly return. Performance is reported as it happened, in R, on a TP1-baseline, with the losses attached — because the absence of those claims is itself a signal of which records to trust.
Performance methodology FAQ
Why not just show the win rate?
Because win rate without average win, average loss, and sample size is meaningless. Expectancy — average R per trade across many trades — is what determines whether a system makes money. We treat win rate as one input, not the headline.
What is TP1-baseline R?
A conservative, comparable scoring rule: each winning trade is credited at the R distance of its first take-profit target (TP1) and each loser at −1R. It prevents a single runner from inflating a period and keeps weekly, monthly, and YTD numbers on the same footing.
Why simulate a $100,000 account at 2% risk?
A fixed, transparent baseline lets anyone translate R-multiples into dollars and compare periods directly. 2% risk per trade is a standard, conservative level; we show both static and compounded equity so the sizing effect is visible.
Where can I verify the numbers?
In the public weekly recaps and weekly losses reports — each dated, each tied to the year-to-date ledger, with both winning and losing weeks disclosed. The record is the evidence; the methodology on this page is how to read it.
See the methodology on live trades
Explore SkyAnalyst’s public, dated track record — every trade in R, winners and losers — and try the agents free.
This article is educational and explains trading concepts and how the SkyAnalyst system measures itself. It is not financial advice, and nothing here is a promise of future results. Trading involves risk of loss. Performance figures cited are simulated on a $100,000 account at 2% risk per trade unless stated otherwise, and past performance — including drawdowns — does not guarantee future outcomes.